• 60 percent of respondents believed U.S. manufacturing can effectively compete globally, 28 percent disagreed, and 12 percent had no opinion.
• When asked how manufacturing would change over the next year, 32 percent said it would weaken, 41 percent said it would stay the same, and only 13 percent said it would strengthen.
• When asked to look out even further, 55 percent believed the U.S. manufacturing sector would weaken, 26 percent said it would stay the same, and only 8 percent felt it would strengthen.
Amazingly, despite the general optimism about our ability to compete in the global marketplace, a similar majority believes that U.S. manufacturing will lose ground in the longer term.

So who is right about manufacturing’s future: the optimists or the pessimists? Booz & Company and the University of Michigan’s Tauber Institute for Global Operations(2) completed a sector-by-sector analysis of U.S. industrial competitiveness, which included a survey of 200 manufacturing executives and experts.

The conclusion is that U.S. manufacturing is at critical crossroads and could either succeed or fail, depending on actions taken by business leaders, educators, and policymakers in the immediate future.
While many Americans believe that virtually nothing is manufactured in the U.S. anymore. In reality, our factories produce roughly 75 percent of the goods we consume as a nation. The study suggests that, in the years ahead, this number could rise to 95 percent, if the right choices are made. This conclusion is partly based on the finding that today’s U.S. manufacturing is far more productive than manufacturing in other counties that Booz & Company has studied, including China and Switzerland.

If, on the other hand, the wrong choices are made and the U.S. manufacturing sector remains neglected, the study warns that output could fall from meeting 75 percent of domestic demand to meeting only 40 percent. For the U.S., this would be disastrous on many fronts. We would lose manufacturing jobs, and we’d also see jobs and enterprises disappear in fields such as equipment maintenance, transportation, construction, and scientific and technical services. Even product and service innovation, the hallmark of American industry, would suffer, shrinking the whole innovation ecosystem.

The United States can compete very effectively and grow its manufacturing base if we leverage three competitive advantages we currently hold. These are opportunities that can drive us toward 95 percent:
1. Close proximity to huge markets, can reduce logistical costs, delays, and complexity. Economic and market dynamics continue putting pressure on manufacturers to locate factories closer to their main markets. Companies are discovering that this proximity is producing scale and volume, minimizing transportation and logistics costs, and increasing market responsiveness and innovation.

2. Market proximity enables U.S. manufactures to capitalize on unique understanding of our markets. When manufacturers are immersed in the cultures they serve, it’s only natural they will better understand the wants and needs of the market. As a result, a company does a better job customizing products that match the unique demands of different regions and cultures.

3. The third advantage U.S. manufacturers need to leverage is state-of-the-art technology. This advantage leads to higher productivity, which delivers cost savings and a competitive edge. A defining characteristic of American industry is not only building a better mousetrap: It’s creating a better way to build that better mousetrap. That mentality, combined with our technological edge and a highly trainable workforce to run sophisticated manufacturing technologies, can still propel manufacturing firms to competitive positions.

TMT Forecasts that:

1. U.S. manufacturing will naturally rebound when many onerous, stifling, and counter-productive Federal and Local regulations are removed.
2. Advances in technology will allow U.S. manufacturers to continue to dominate their markets.
3. The national sentiment about the long-term future for manufacturing will become increasingly optimistic.

References
1.Business Impact, July 2011, “Advanced Manufacturing.” © Copyright 2011 by Technology Review. All rights reserved. http://www.technologyreview.com
2.Strategy + Business, Autumn 2011, “Manufacturing’s Wake-Up Call,” by Arvind Kaushal, Thomas Mayor, and Patricia Riedl. © Copyright 2011 by Booz and Company. All rights reserved. http://www.strategy-business.com

It is important to note that while The Long View is a 2030 forecast of Population, Personal Income, and Jobs for Gwinnett, it also covers the other 19 counties in the Metro Atlanta, Georgia and the US. The focus on Metro Atlanta is important because Gwinnett is part of that whole, which is easily verified when travelling, and someone asks where you are from. A Gwinnett answer will always get puzzled looks, but Atlanta gets you the nod.

The presentation has 19 slides, but the charts and numbers above, tell most of the story. The 2030 Metro Atlanta population will reach 8.4 million which roughly places Atlanta then, where London and Chicago are today. Imagine Metro-Atlanta like legendary London, and Chicago, we have a lot of work to do. Also by 2030 the Metro Atlanta population approaches 60% of the Georgia population of 14.7 million. Hopefully, with that will come more attention by those under the Gold Dome to address the issues that come with the Chicago-London size. Another astounding statistic is that the Gwinnett population grows to more than 1 million by 2020, and 1.2 by 2030, surpassing Fulton by 40 thousand. The Compounded Annual Growth Rates (CAGR) are posted above to give you a sense of how fast Gwinnett (4.9%) has been growing relative to Metro Atlanta (2.6%), Georgia (1.9%), and the Nation (1.1%). The four major counties Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton and Gwinnett remain the most populous collectively representing over 50% of the Metro Atlanta population, with Gwinnett alone over 15%

On the jobs front, Metro Atlanta expects to gain more than 1.1 million jobs by 2030, however while
Gwinnett has surpassed Fulton in population the ARC projection for jobs still has Fulton with 28% of the jobs in 2030, and Gwinnett with 14%. And, the Personal Income projections also support the 2 to 1 job ratio, with Fulton personal income per capita remaining much stronger than Gwinnett’s. Some of that can be explained by the fact that Gwinnett is a younger county, but most of it has to do with the kind of jobs that are created, and the companies that come to each of our counties. Much work remains to be done by our leadership in ensuring that our future becomes brighter. As of now we have an excellent Chamber of Commerce Economic Development Group that is moving deliberatively and effectively. In addition, we have an educational system between Gwinnett County Public Schools, Gwinnett Tech and Georgia Gwinnett College that will continue to elevate our workforce readiness. What we need now is visionary leadership out of our government entities to better position Gwinnett into the leadership position in a Metro Atlanta that will surely become the New York of the South.